Channel 2
Monday, May 5, 2025 1:45 PM (30 Minutes)
This presentation will discuss exploratory data analysis applied to the copious amounts of information the LANL CAPARS EPHA Modeling System has generated. In addition to creating all EPHA analysis and EAL reports, the system can be used to calculate threshold source term values for varying locations and release characteristics. The threshold values can be used to eliminate modeling specific EPHA cases and can be used to screen substances. Further analysis shows the impact that seasons, day/night conditions, and weather observations have on projected consequences.
LANL has put in place a calculational tool to determine a threshold value (PAC-2 or 1 rem) based on the output of a single CAPARS EPHA Modeling System run. This allows the EPHA analysts to establish a maximum quantity for which protective actions, and therefore modeling, are not required. Establishing a threshold allows for less computation time during both EPHA development and real-time modelling. Also, identifying the seasons, day/night conditions, and weather observations that generate the worst consequences allows analysts to know when worst-case consequences may occur.
Understanding the nuances buried in the piles of data help gain knowledge of patterns associated with various attributes of a site (geography, meteorological data, threshold values, etc.). Such patterns can aid in the protective action development process and decrease the time it takes to assess the health effects associated with a release of hazardous material.